Thibaut Courtois’ injury was not half the bane Real Madrid expected it to be. The Belgian star may have been one of the team’s pillars on the field, but his tenure on the sidelines opened the doors for the club to discover strong backups.
The men in white signed Kepa Arrizabalaga from Chelsea on a season-long loan deal as their immediate response to the crisis in goal. The Spanish shot-stopper was after all coming off a strong season with the London side, and his quick adaptation to Real Madrid spoke volumes about his quality.
One injury spell, however, brought the roof crashing down on Kepa’s supremacy at the club. Given a hint of continuity, Andriy Lunin stepped on the gas and ensured he left a mark with his consistent displays, leaving Carlo Ancelotti in an acute dilemma.
The Kepa vs Lunin debate has now become a recurring theme in the Italian gaffer’s press conferences, and his stance on the situation shows that there is not much that separates the two in-form stars.
Madrid Universal breaks down the numbers of both players, primarily of this season, and thus provides an overview of their strengths, profiles, and a dive into who is the better option.
Clean sheets
There is a clear discrepancy between the prominence both players have received this season, primarily owing to the prolonged continuity Kepa enjoyed at the beginning of the season. As a result, the Spaniard has started 11 games for Real Madrid in La Liga while Lunin has only seen seven.
Of all his appearances in Spain, Kepa has overseen six clean sheets with a clean sheet percentage of 54.5%. Lunin trails in that regard with three clean sheets and a percentage of 42.9%.
Notably, however, the Ukrainian star boasts of fewer goals conceded per 90 minutes. While his record on that front stands at a mere 0.57, Kepa stands at 0.64.
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Shot-stopping
The PSxG-GA (Post Shot xG – Goals against) is a unique statistic that highlights an individual’s ability to react to a threatening attack and avoid conceding. In simple words, it is a record of a goalkeeper’s ability to counter the opposition’s chances with his brilliance.
Paint a scenario where a shot-stopper is faced with a rampant counterattack. The situation boils down to a 1v1 where the striker has a high chance of scoring. A save under such a circumstance would reward the goalkeeper with a higher PSxG-GA than, assume, a save off a long-range shot that had a lower chance of finding the back of the net.
In that respect, Kepa has faced an average of 0.75 Post Shot xG (PSxG) per game while Lunin has faced 1.01. Taking their shot-stopping prowess into account, the Spanish and Ukrainian internationals boast of a PSxG-GA of +0.20 and +0.44 respectively.
That implies that both players have done exceedingly well in actively nullifying opposition threats on goal, although Lunin has been over twice as effective in that respect.
Distribution
Goalkeeper passes can be broadly classified into two categories – short-range and long-range. The former includes all distributive actions less than 40 yards, while the latter comprises any passes beyond that limit.
Statistically, Kepa averages 6.27 attempted launches (>40 yards) per ninety, completing 2.09 with a 33.3% success rate. Lunin meanwhile completed 1.57 of his 3.14 attempted launches with a 50% success rate.
Lunin also boasts of a higher pass accuracy (91.2%) compared to Kepa (84.9%) and is individually superior in accuracy in both short and long-range passes. The on-loan star, meanwhile, can boast of superior range in goal kicks (an average of over 29 yards compared to Lunin’s 27 yards) and a superior rate of launching the long ball.
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Miscellaneous
One statistic that drastically separates the two keepers is their ability to counter opposition crosses and cut off the attack at the root. Lunin, in that regard, is far superior.
The youngster stops just under 10% of opposition crosses into the penalty area per game, stopping 1.29 of the approximate 13 crosses faced. His elder counterpart, however, lags with a crosses-stopped % of just 1.5%.
Lunin is also surprisingly ahead in his ability and confidence in operating as a sweeper keeper recording one defensive action outside the box per game to Kepa’s 0.64. The latter, however, is superior in the number of gross ball recoveries and clearances.
Conclusion
Despite being the one less trusted, the statistics favour Real Madrid’s in-house solution Andriy Lunin to be the more rounded goalkeeping option in Ancelotti’s arsenal.
The youngster is not only more calm in the face of adversity but boasts a superior goal-saving record, cleaner distribution, and better awareness to stop opposition counters.
Kepa provides a strong case to be a starter as well, but it is high time the manager started viewing his Ukrainian option as his primary goalkeeper. In fact, he has hinted at the same in recent press conferences and it remains to be seen if his management concurs with the light thrown by the statistics.