The absence of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo from mainstream prominence has ushered in a new dawn of intrigue during awards season.
The two greats monopolised all the shiny individual pots and pans there were to win for over a decade, but their respective ventures to MLS and Saudi Arabia mean the pair are unlikely to be considered for the sport’s most lucrative awards at the back end of their careers.
A tight 2024 Ballon d’Or race was expected to conclude with Vinicius Junior becoming the first Brazilian to claim the golden ball since Kaka in 2007, but voters instead opted for the steely presence at the base of Manchester City and Spain’s midfield. Rodri, however, will not have the chance to defend his crown in 2025 thanks to an anterior cruciate ligament tear sustained in September.
There’s a great possibility another new Ballon d’Or victor will emerge next year and the absence of significant international football means the award will almost exclusively focus on club form during the 2024/25 season.
With that in mind, let’s dive into our way too early prediction for the 2025 Ballon d’Or.
Predictions for the 2025 Ballon d’Or
10. Michael Olise
Michael Olise’s time at Crystal Palace was dogged by injuries but he showed just how special a footballer he is during his final few months in south London and Bayern Munich believe they’ve copped an absolute steal for his services at £50.8m.
The nonchalant Frenchman certainly boasts the talent and aesthetics to woo voters, with the start he’s made to his Bundesliga career suggesting he’s a player capable of competing for the sport’s most prestigious individual honour.
He’s quickly established himself as part of a behemoth that could end 2024/25 with multiple pieces of silverware.
9. Pedri
The former Kopa Trophy victor could be higher on this list, but an injury setback is seemingly never too far away.
Pedri, nonetheless, has rediscovered his most majestic form in Barcelona colours, shining in Hansi Flick’s double pivot. A lack of size is made up by dogged industry and an unrivalled mastery of the ball.
Let’s hope and pray the Spaniard stays injury-free.
8. Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham finished on the podium in 2024, but he’s unlikely to better that result next year. The Englishman’s third-place finish came by virtue of the prolific start he made to his Real Madrid career.
A change in function means Bellingham is not going to put up huge numbers in 2024/25, but he remains a super gifted midfielder who has a knack of producing in the biggest spots. A clutch moment or two could thrust the Madrid star into the top ten again.
7. Harry Kane
Harry Kane certainly isn’t shy of individual honours and claimed another at the 2024 ceremony in the form of the Gerd Muller Trophy. He finished tenth in Ballon d’Or voting.
While the Englishman was once again remarkably prolific during his first season at Bayern Munich, his goals, as many as there were, didn’t actually count for all too much as Bayern failed to get their hands on any silverware.
However, if Kane continues to find the back of the net at an unrelenting rate and normality is resumed with Bayern atop the Bundesliga table next May, Kane should better his Ballon d’Or standing in 2025.
6. Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka has been remarkably consistent since breaking into Arsenal’s first team and there’s no doubting who the Gunners’ main man is.
The 23-year-old is Mikel Arteta’s superstar down the right flank. He consistently delivers for club and country on the biggest occasions and has emerged as an inevitability on the output front in recent times.
This is one of the world’s best wingers and his stock will be at an all-time high if he inspires Arsenal to Premier League or even Champions League glory in 2025.
5. Robert Lewandowski
It looked as if Robert Lewandowski had ventured beyond his twilight for much of 2023/24, but the arrival of Flick, who coached the Pole at Bayern, has rejuvenated the veteran forward.
The striker will perpetually feast in front of goal but Lewandowski has contributed much more than goals to a dazzling Barca team at the start of Flick’s tenure. If the Catalonians continue on their current trajectory and Lewandowski remains relentless on the output front, the 36-year-old could re-emerge as a Ballon d’Or contender.
4. Kylian Mbappe
Imagine telling someone after the 2018 World Cup that the young Frenchman who tore it up in Russia for a summer would not yet have a Ballon d’Or to his name by 2024.
“Blasphemy!” you would’ve cried.
Given his status among the world’s best for half a decade, Kylian Mbappe’s single podium finish is a major surprise. In truth, he hasn’t really come close to getting his hands on the award.
However, a move to perennial Champions League victors Real Madrid will help his cause – even if he’s yet to cement himself as Los Blancos’ main man.
3. Erling Haaland
Some will claim Erling Haaland should have won the 2023 award over Messi off the back of the Norwegian’s record-breaking scoring season as his Manchester City team won the treble.
Messi, though, did cement his legacy and status as the greatest to ever do it by inspiring Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar. It was no robbery.
Haaland may not exactly be the man for aesthetics, but the numbers will continue to speak for themselves. As long as he’s healthy, Haaland will be scoring an obscene amount of goals and the absence of international tournaments next summer will help his cause.
2. Lamine Yamal
It’s been said about so many wonderkids before, but there’s just no way Lamine Yamal ends his career without a Ballon d’Or to his name.
The teenager claimed the Kopa Trophy in 2024 and finished eighth in voting for the main prize. Yamal is simply defying belief, performing at a level we perhaps didn’t believe could be replicated by a teenager after Messi and his flowing locks started his ascent to all-time greatness 20 years ago.
Not even the great Argentine was doing what Yamal is right now.
1. Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior really wants to win the Ballon d’Or. That became clear amid the fallout of his second-place finish in 2024.
‘I’ll do it 10x if I have to. They’re not ready,” the Brazilian posted on X after Rodri’s victory was confirmed.
Vinicius may well be the world’s best player and his sheer determination to wrong a supposed robbery could thrust him to glory in 2025. Mbappe’s arrival has not yet diminished his status in Madrid and further Champions League success for the Spaniards would aid Vini’s standing in pursuit of Ballon d’Or glory next year.
